Global carbon budget 2014
Corinne Le Quéré
(1)
,
Robbie M. Andrew
(2)
,
Glen P. Peters
(2)
,
Philippe Ciais
(3, 4)
,
Pierre Friedlingstein
(5)
,
Stephen D. Jones
(1)
,
Stephen Sitch
(6)
,
Pieter P. Tans
(7)
,
Almut Arneth
(5)
,
Thomas A. Boden
(8)
,
Laurent Bopp
(3)
,
Yves Bozec
(9)
,
Josep G. Canadell
(10)
,
Louise P. Chini
(11)
,
Frédéric Chevallier
(3, 12)
,
Catherine E. Cosca
(13)
,
Ian Harris
(14)
,
Mario Hoppema
(15)
,
Richard A. Houghton
(16)
,
J. I. House
(17)
,
Atul K. Jain
(18)
,
Truls Johannessen
(19, 20)
,
Etsushi Kato
(21)
,
Ralph F. Keeling
(22)
,
Vassilis Kitidis
(23)
,
Kees Klein Goldewijk
(24)
,
C. Koven
(25, 21)
,
Camilla S. Landa
(19, 20)
,
Peter Landschützer
(26)
,
Andrew Lenton
(27)
,
Ivan D. Lima
(16)
,
Gregg Marland
(28)
,
Jeremy T. Mathis
(13)
,
Nicolas Metzl
(29)
,
Yukihiro Nojiri
(25)
,
Are Olsen
(30)
,
Tsuneo Ono
(31)
,
S. Peng
(32)
,
Wouter Peters
(33)
,
Benjamin Pfeil
(19, 20)
,
Benjamin Poulter
(34)
,
M. R. Raupach
(35)
,
P. Regnier
(36)
,
Christian Rödenbeck
(37)
,
Shu Saito
(38)
,
Joseph E. Salisbury
(39)
,
Ute Schuster
(6)
,
Jörg Schwinger
(19, 20)
,
Roland Séférian
(40)
,
Joachim Segschneider
(41)
,
Tobias Steinhoff
(42)
,
Benjamin D. Stocker
(43, 44)
,
Adrienne J. Sutton
(45, 13)
,
Taro Takahashi
(46)
,
Bronte Tilbrook
(47)
,
Guido R. van Der Werf
(48)
,
Nicolas Viovy
(3, 49)
,
Y.-P. Wang
(47)
,
Rik H. Wanninkhof
(50)
,
Andrew J. Wiltshire
(51)
,
N. Zeng
(52)
1
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
2 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
3 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
4 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
5 KIT - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
6 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
7 ESRL - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
8 ORNL - Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge]
9 CHIM - CHImie Marine
10 Global Carbon Project
11 Department of Geographical Sciences
12 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
13 PMEL - NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle]
14 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
15 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
16 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
17 University of Bristol [Bristol]
18 Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana]
19 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
20 BCCR - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
21 IAE - Institute of Applied Energy
22 ESD - Earth Science Division [LBNL Berkeley]
23 PML - Plymouth Marine Laboratory
24 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
25 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
26 IBP - Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich]
27 CSIRO - Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
28 Appalachian State University
29 E-CO2 - Équipe CO2
30 Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society
31 AIST - National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
32 FOI - Swedish Defence Research Agency [Stockholm]
33 MAQ - Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen]
34 MSU - Montana State University
35 ANU - Australian National University
36 ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles
37 MPI-BGC - Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie
38 JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
39 UNH - University of New Hampshire
40 Météo-France
41 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
42 GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel]
43 Imperial College London
44 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
45 JISAO - Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
46 Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering
47 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
48 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
49 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
50 AOML - NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
51 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
52 AOSC - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park]
2 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
3 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
4 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
5 KIT - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
6 College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter]
7 ESRL - NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
8 ORNL - Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge]
9 CHIM - CHImie Marine
10 Global Carbon Project
11 Department of Geographical Sciences
12 SATINV - Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires
13 PMEL - NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle]
14 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
15 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine
16 WHOI - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
17 University of Bristol [Bristol]
18 Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana]
19 GFI / BiU - Geophysical Institute [Bergen]
20 BCCR - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
21 IAE - Institute of Applied Energy
22 ESD - Earth Science Division [LBNL Berkeley]
23 PML - Plymouth Marine Laboratory
24 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
25 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
26 IBP - Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich]
27 CSIRO - Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship
28 Appalachian State University
29 E-CO2 - Équipe CO2
30 Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society
31 AIST - National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
32 FOI - Swedish Defence Research Agency [Stockholm]
33 MAQ - Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen]
34 MSU - Montana State University
35 ANU - Australian National University
36 ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles
37 MPI-BGC - Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie
38 JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
39 UNH - University of New Hampshire
40 Météo-France
41 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
42 GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel]
43 Imperial College London
44 OCCR - Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
45 JISAO - Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
46 Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering
47 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
48 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
49 MOSAIC - Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales
50 AOML - NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
51 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre
52 AOSC - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park]
Corinne Le Quéré
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Robbie M. Andrew
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Glen P. Peters
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Philippe Ciais
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Pierre Friedlingstein
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Stephen Sitch
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Almut Arneth
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Laurent Bopp
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Frédéric Chevallier
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Etsushi Kato
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Peter Landschützer
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Ivan D. Lima
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Nicolas Metzl
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Are Olsen
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Wouter Peters
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Benjamin Pfeil
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Christian Rödenbeck
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Jörg Schwinger
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Bronte Tilbrook
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Résumé
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATMwas high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFFFand 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
Domaines
Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]| Origine | Publication financée par une institution |
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